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Dubai World issue has been blown out of all proportions 
By
 
Vicky Kapur  on 11/30/2009 

That Dubai is integral to the world economy was never in doubt. It is one of the world's premier trade and logistics hubs, and a vital financial centre that bridges the East with the West.

But that it could literally bring global markets crashing with what would have been an insignificant announcement in the pre-crisis era is downright ludicrous.

It isn't just that the amount that is due on the Nakheel sukuk on December 14, 2009 – a sought delay in whose payment has apparently melted real estate markets from Melbourne to Milwaukee and frozen stock markets from Moscow to Montreal – is not huge, but the fact that markets and media across the world are devoting so much attention to the mode and the method of this repayment is intriguing to say the least.

And it isn't just the ultra-vulnerable equity markets that are jittery: globally, large institutional investors are apparently pulling out of gold – that safest of safe haven investments – on "Dubai fears".

It's the same "Dubai debt woes" that are being held responsible for a decline in oil and dollar's fortunes. Bonds aren't immune either – bond markets as far apart as India and Greece "suffered" as credit fears sapped confidence.

To say that all this mayhem is unfolding around the world because Dubai World is seeking an additional six months to put its financial house in order is something that takes a while to digest. Least of all because it doesn't make sense.

Is seeking additional time to repay debt such a reprehensible offence in today's cash-strapped times?

Any reasonable investor would – and should – know that Dubai World is a Dubai government-owned holding company; it isn't the Dubai Government. And what it is seeking is a "standstill agreement" for six months – which implies that Dubai World has short-term liquidity problems, something that was well known and documented even before the announcement came in.

That the government has stepped in through the Dubai Financial Support Fund to spearhead Dubai World's restructuring, "designed to address financial obligations and improve business efficiency" is a positive step, in effect signifying that the government hasn't left the cash-strapped corporate alone to fend for itself.

The Dubai Government and related entities have, so far in 2009, made good all maturing debt – in full. The government's intervention – something that the markets always expected to be the case when push came to shove – suggests that the government intends to evaluate and indeed exhaust all possible commercial options for debt repayment and restructuring before throwing a lifeline to the company.

So what's wrong with that?

That the government has chosen to appoint a world-renowned chief restructuring officer to look into the financials and chart a commercially viable way out is exactly the kind of astute, strategic thinking that has made Dubai what it is today – among the top 25 global financial centres (No23, according to City of London's March 2009 Global Financial Centres Index).

Global media – and markets – cried murder when governments across the world began bailing out large banks and corporates in the aftermath of the credit crisis.

They lamented the "death of capitalism" as we know it, and accused governments of throwing good taxpayer money after bad, and of over-interfering in the private business domain.

Now when the Government of Dubai is trying to put in place a system to "ensure the continuity of Dubai World's operations", global media and markets are swinging the other way, clamouring up support for bailing out investors who were, without a doubt, receiving substantially better returns than a risk-free investment in, say, T-Bonds or government paper.

The government is clear in its goal: that it will seek to redress impending debt issues with a clear focus on consolidating profitable businesses – and that's exactly why DP World is not part of the restructuring exercise.

Unlike some of the other regional governments, Dubai has chosen to do so on a commercial basis and not behind-the-scenes, brushing-under-the-carpet sort of way, where a government handout ensures that all commitments are met without a hiccup and the entities remain uneconomical as ever.

However, the markets might react, this is Dubai we are talking about. An emirate that has redefined the terms "vision" and "ambition" for the world, which has given it the tallest tower, the largest mall, the tallest hotel, the largest man-made harbour and, in-the-making, the world's largest airport, among a host of other marvels. It has a track-record second to none. Dubai is one of the foremost centres of world gold trade and has indeed been gaining in importance as the preferred global destination for tourism, entrepôt, real estate and construction activity, especially over the past three decades.

The Dubai dream lives on. If anything, this latest episode is a sign of Dubai's economic maturity, a clear conscience and commercial intent.

 

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Comments 
Arun  said...
DUBAI....
I feel that Dubai story is being blown this way by world media because...every one is astounded with what Dubai has achieved in such a short time. It is a city every one not from this part of the world would like to look at with lots of envy. Any -ve news about this city would generate tremendous interest in every one who are so used to hear only good news about Dubai. This is precisely what is happening. Dubai will bounce back sooner than people imagine...
Posted on Monday, November 30, 2009 at 7:34 PM (UAE Local Time)
Anonymous  said...
Bonds must be repaid on time
Is seeking additional time to repay debt such a reprehensible offence in today's cash-strapped times? what do you think?
Posted on Monday, November 30, 2009 at 6:35 PM (UAE Local Time)
Mahmood Ashraf  said...
Dubai World.
Take off the Peg to the Dollar and all the worries of Dubai World will end.
Posted on Monday, November 30, 2009 at 6:06 PM (UAE Local Time)
Mahmood Ashraf  said...
Dubai World.
There are too many misconceptions which are spread about Dubai World and The Govt of Dubai, Dubai world has been a major player and has been a major part of the success of Dubai,it had being paying dividends to its investors through out.And it is in a Crisis because of its foreign investors spoiling the name of the organization.I would Advise Dubai is still an excellent place for investment.and not only Dubai but any country in the World is Safe if the investors do not invest blindly.
Posted on Monday, November 30, 2009 at 6:04 PM (UAE Local Time)
elmanlopez@yahoo.com  said...
!DUBAI GO ON¡
Dubai go on. Dubai has the right to have its "vision" and "ambition", because is good and necessary for the world (esat, middle east and west). Elman Lopez, Quito, Ecuador
Posted on Monday, November 30, 2009 at 5:27 PM (UAE Local Time)
The Unit  said...
delusional rubbish
Er, so you think the world's media have got it all wrong, while the view from the Dubai government-owned newspaper is alone in seeing the situation how it really is? Is $35bn really that small an amount and if it was so small, why not just pay it back?
Posted on Monday, November 30, 2009 at 4:42 PM (UAE Local Time)
financedude  said...
outtolunch
Being a bond trader, I can tell you that this is only the beginning. Huge changes are in store for Dubai as a whole.
Posted on Monday, November 30, 2009 at 2:58 PM (UAE Local Time)
krishna  said...
dubai world issue
Your article is spot on!!!! Dubai has been and will continue to be the cynosure of all western media be it its successes or excesses....The Dubai brand cannot escape that fact. Small wonder then that the media in the US/UK the prime contenders for the title - "Who messed up Planet Earth??" eagerly line up to focus with their fertile imagination based on sensation rather than on fact. Brand dubai desrves Credit for what it has achieved and i am convinced that the hurdles are transitory.
Posted on Monday, November 30, 2009 at 1:41 PM (UAE Local Time)
Venkatesh  said...
DUBAI CRISIS
I Feel the Intervention by DUBAI GOVT is the Correct Step. I am sure the Govt with the suggesions of Right People will repose enough confidence in the Lenders & Investors alike. However, the recovery of Construction Industry will be longer han earlier thought & will b more painful. We all need to brace for it for the Collective Greed of all of us.
Posted on Monday, November 30, 2009 at 1:36 PM (UAE Local Time)
ashish  said...
Dubai World issue is blown disproportionately
Really good article with logic.
Posted on Monday, November 30, 2009 at 12:37 PM (UAE Local Time)
Sadiq  said...
No Need panic
Its only a media hype and everyone throwing their assumptions. As a Engineer working here there is good sign for recovery and Dubai will bounce back to nullify all the preconceived assumptions.
Posted on Monday, November 30, 2009 at 11:08 AM (UAE Local Time)
Surjeet  said...
overreaction on Dubai
Who knows, whether this is all to it. What I know the MIS capabilitis poor because of lack of corporate governance. As we all know there are over £240 million that is owed to the contractors of the UK. when the contractors are not paid, workers are not, and the workers are not the grocers are not!! It is a chain reaction; and certainly not a good publicity. Whether it is a cash crunch or a solvency issue, no one knows as yet; only time will show.
Posted on Monday, November 30, 2009 at 10:58 AM (UAE Local Time)
Lynne  said...
Dubai World's announcement
Excellent article. I am an American who is watching this from the USA. I agree with your view and am hopeful, that once people stop and think, they will actually react to this responsible action, with the appropriate responses and actions.
Posted on Monday, November 30, 2009 at 7:41 AM (UAE Local Time)
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