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Gulf could see improvement by next year  
By
 
Staff Writer  on 3/30/2009 

Despite the global financial downturn and its impact on the region, not everyone fears the future, as 25 per cent of jobseekers quizzed in a regional survey said they believed the country's economy would improve by the next year.

And 28 per cent said they thought business conditions would improve over the same period, according to the study by recruitment website Bayt.com and research company YouGov.

But consumer confidence fell by 15 points, the fourth drop in a row.

The trend of falling consumer confidence was repeated across the Gulf and Levant countries. Kuwait's consumer confidence was the hardest hit, falling by 16.7 points, with dips in Bahrain of 12 points and Qatar of 8.9 points. But confidence in Saudi Arabia dipped by less than one point at 0.9 while in Syria and Lebanon it dropped by 9.7 and 8.0 points respectively.

Lebanon's large decline in February's consumer confidence levels contrasts with an improvement of 25.5 points in the last survey conducted last November.

Egypt's consumer confidence dropped by 4.4 points while Algeria was the only country that reported an increase, moving up by 1.5 points.

The consumer confidence index (CCI) is a measure of expectations and satisfaction with various elements of the economy including inflation, job opportunities and the cost of living.

"What we are seeing with the results of the CCI is that while the effects of the global economic downturn can't be taken in isolation they are having a significant impact on this region, and more specifically are affecting some Middle East countries much worse than others," said Bayt.com's Regional Manager, Amer Zureikat.

"This sort of research is really important as an indicator of the prevailing feelings towards the current business and economic environment because it comes from a grassroot level – from people who are most affected.

"Conducting surveys such as the CCI on a periodical basis, to measure how attitudes and opinions have changed over time, allows businesses, human resources professionals and other stakeholders to benefit from up-to-date insights into how consumers are thinking.

"These details can then be significant drivers for adapting business strategies and making them relevant to the current environment."

Part of the CCI is an assessment of respondents' personal financial situation and whether they feel better or worse off than they did 12 months before. Surprisingly a fifth of all respondents in the UAE felt they were better off than last year, indicating that the gloomy financial environment is not affecting everyone.

On a regional level a quarter of respondents felt they were better off, 34 per cent felt they were worse off and 35 per cent felt their financial position had not changed.

"As usual the CCI data revealed respondents feel salary increases haven't kept pace with the cost of living, with an overwhelming 64 per cent saying that increases are not in line," said Zureikat.

"The UAE was slightly above the average in terms of people feeling inadequacy of salary raise, with 69 per cent saying it hasn't kept pace."

Optimism has waned in terms of expectations of job availability in a year's time, with 41 per cent believing availability would be worse than now. Kuwait and the UAE shared the same level of pessimism about future job availability, with 49 per cent agreeing the situation would be worse. The figures suggest majority of residents are feeling the effects of the credit crunch, but a proportion believe things will soon look up. In the UAE, 21 per cent believe job availability will be better by next year.

YouGov CEO Nassim Ghrayeb said: "The index provides an interesting and relevant set of insights into how consumers feel during a certain period and although it is just an indicator, it reveals a clear picture of the countries where people feel it is still a good time to buy.

"This not only equips marketers and companies with a strong insight for selling their products, but it sends a clear message to all involved in commerce that consumers are less inclined to buy at present; therefore brands offering strong value propositions will most likely succeed in these trying times."

 


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